The chart redraws as you move the controls. The shaded band is where eight in ten simulated paths finished; the solid block underneath is the money you would have paid in by then. Nothing here is a projection of your account — it is what the assumptions below imply.
10,000 simulated paths, net of a 27 bps blended fund cost and before tax. Eight paths in ten finished inside the shaded band and one in ten finished below it. A projection is a model output, not a promise.
The median path gains ₹1.35 crore over the capital you paid in. Modelled volatility is 11.0% a year, so expect the value to sit below what you have paid in at some point in the first three years.
The default. Enough equity to beat inflation, enough debt to sleep through a drawdown.
Everything is a direct-plan index fund or ETF bought in your own name. We take no commission from any asset management company, so the sleeve weights are the only thing we can be right or wrong about.
| Sleeve | What it holds | Weight | Fund cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indian equity | Nifty 500 index fund, direct plan | 55% | 21 bps |
| Debt | Short-duration debt fund and a G-Sec ladder | 25% | 26 bps |
| Gold | Gold ETF, held in your own demat with CDSL | 8% | 34 bps |
| International equity | Developed-markets index fund (S&P 500 and MSCI World) | 12% | 49 bps |
| Blended | Rebalanced when a sleeve drifts ±5% from target | 100% | 27 bps |
The middle line, year by year. The two outer columns are the same percentile band you see on the chart, read at that point in time rather than at the end.
| Year | Paid in | 10th | Median | 90th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ₹15.0 lakh | ₹16.7 lakh | ₹19.6 lakh | ₹22.9 lakh |
| 10 | ₹30.0 lakh | ₹41.2 lakh | ₹52.1 lakh | ₹66.1 lakh |
| 15 | ₹45.0 lakh | ₹78.1 lakh | ₹1.06 crore | ₹1.45 crore |
| 20 | ₹60.0 lakh | ₹1.35 crore | ₹1.95 crore | ₹2.86 crore |
10,000 simulated paths, net of a 27 bps blended fund cost and before tax. Eight paths in ten finished inside the shaded band and one in ten finished below it. A projection is a model output, not a promise.
Four asset-class assumptions, one correlation matrix, and no manager skill anywhere in it. We publish them so you can disagree with a specific number rather than with the chart.
| Asset class | Expected return | Volatility | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indian equity | 13.0% | 18.0% | Nifty 500 TRI, 2005–2025, rounded down a point for the next decade |
| Debt | 7.0% | 3.5% | Short-duration and gilt indices, held to a two-to-four year duration |
| Gold | 8.5% | 14.0% | Domestic gold price in rupees, which carries the currency move with it |
| International equity | 11.0% | 15.0% | MSCI World in rupee terms, including the long-run rupee drift |
Returns are drawn from a lognormal distribution with the blended mean and volatility of your portfolio, correlated across sleeves. Annualised dispersion narrows with the square root of elapsed time, which is why the band widens in rupees while the percentile growth rates converge.
Fund expense ratios, at the weight of each sleeve, are taken out of the return before compounding. The flat advisory fee and any exit load are not — they are a rupee amount, not a rate, and you can see them on the costs table.
Tax, inflation, a missed instalment, a bad decision in a bad month. The first two you can adjust for yourself; the last two are the reason the 10th percentile is on this chart at all.
Your 3 portfolio options, one risk questionnaire, and an e-mandate you control from your own bank app.